I agree that the stance of the RG may create a pressure cooker within domestic boundaries. The extent to which the population is willing to take the streets with a critical mass following recent events - not to mention continuing bombing - remains to be seen. The big question remains whether the US intends to put boots on the ground - which seems unlikely.
Another uncertain feature is the turmoil that may be caused by the Shiite diaspora across the larger region. It was not just an assassination of a head of state, but also of a religious leader with a significant following. I am not in a position to make any reasonable prediction on these matters. With Iraq, Afghanistan and other past interventions in mind, I hesitate whether the US has appropriate contingency planning in place.
What do you guys think following the attacks in Iran? Im very curious to know whether this will lead to a progressive regime change or will Khomenei just be replaced with someone else? Also do we think this is going to aspect the world?
In the absence of either Galactic or Divine intervention, the situation in Iran and the wider region is precarious and utmost volatile. My limited understanding of the strike on Khamenei is that it involved an opportunistic attack due to the proximity of various leaders in the ayatollah’s compound (including high ranking RG and Def Min officials). The lack of proper contingency planning and military ground support by US would mean that the current status quo can be fertile ground for new representatives of the “old” regime or more extreme militant organisations to prosper. I consider it unlikely that IS (or similar) Sunnite groups would assume control in a predominantly Shiite society. But the current void will not persist.
Immediate effects in the broader region are already visible (including possible incursion by Israel in the southern part of Lebanon). The big question is whether Shiite factions in neighboring countries of Iran will respond and further ignite existing tensions.
Welcome to casino politics on a global level - as it seems to be the case. It is a dire situation in which chaos will likely continue to thrive in the near future at the expense of local populations.
